Tuesday, May 20, 2008

Economic woes, US Financial crash?

Quite often online discussions come up concerning the rising price of coins. Dealers are sometimes viewed as "greedy" or "opportunistic" on some of the USENET lists, while more reasonable individuals point out the rising cost of living, cost and increased scarcity of new material and a stong European market.

An interesting article today (found here: Numismaster.com) really got me thinking on what the cause was of the increased prices and where the market will be a year or two from now. The article speculates that the United States is in for a major Financial crash within the next two months . The article brings out some interesting points of how fabricated statistics by the federal government could be enough to cause a crash.

I certainly agree that when the citizens of a country lose faith in their money and more importantly, they lose faith in what they are being told, it could spell serious trouble. (Pick any failed economy and/or currency and analyse why it failed!)

As a small business owner, citizen of New York City and consumer I have certainly felt the pinch. Over the past seven years (I use 9/10/01 as a starting point because in my opinion that was the starting point of many of the factors that have lead to a weakened economy and dollar) I have personally seen double digit inflation and a depreciation of the US Dollar. Some examples:

Medical Insurance premiums have gone up more than 70%, comparing inferior service to that of seven years ago
Staple goods (milk, bread, etc.) have gone up at least 40% (Due to the high demand for corn production as an alternative fuel to gasoline i.e.: Ethanol, higher fuel and transportation, expenses, etc. )
Rent and Co-op/Condo maintenance has gone up, my maintenance in 2001 was $492 and in 2008 is now $680 (A relatively low maintenance for a 2 bedroom apartment, but imagine someone that has been paying market rent)
Gasoline has gone up a whopping 100%+ from a price of $1.39 per gallon on 9/10/2001 to yesterday's price of $4.06
In 2001 the toll for the George Washington Bridge jumped from $4 to $6 and now in 2008 it has jumped to $8
The Euro on 9/11/01 was $.91 and today (May 20, 2008) it is $1.57 per Euro

As a coin dealer I have seen the cost of inventory steadily increase to the point that my cost for inventory is in many cases double or triple what I would have sold the same material for in September of 2001.

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